CSMA2026

A probabilistic validation framework for structural models using sparse test data
Victor Estavoyer  1@  , Nathalie Bartoli  2, *@  , Christian Gogu  3, *@  , Jean-Philippe Navarro  1, *@  
1 : Airbus Operations  -  Site web
Airbus [France]
Site Industriel316 route de Bayonne31060TOULOUSE Cedex 9Midi-Pyrénées -  France
2 : DTIS, ONERA, Université de Toulouse [Toulouse]  -  Site web
ONERA, Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse
31000 Toulouse -  France
3 : Institut Clément Ader  (ICA)  -  Site web
Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace, Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux, Université de Toulouse
ESPACE CLEMENT ADER - Toulouse Montaudran Aerospace3 rue Caroline Aigle31400 Toulouse CEDEX 04 -  France
* : Auteur correspondant

This research aims to develop a methodology allowing to extend the validation domain of aeronautical structural models to reduce reliance on costly physical testing while maintaining the current required safety standards . The core challenge is quantifying the risk of applying models to untested configurations. Using composite panel buckling as a case study, the approach employs a multi-fidelity strategy. This leverages low-fidelity analytical models to guide the extrapolation of sparse high-fidelity experimental data. Non-dimensional parameters are used to reduce the high-dimensional input space associated with composites multi-ply laminates. Finally, a probabilistic validation framework propagates uncertainties for a robust comparison between simulation and experiment.


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